Staydium Financial Model — DCF · Scenarios · Investor Returns

As Requested

Master index of every item requested by Jameson & Rakesh — mapped to where it lives in the model

Scenario
Total requests
17
Built
17
Planned
0
Coverage
100%
Overview

The Staydium story — what this model shows, what it doesn't, and how it answers Jameson & Rakesh

1. What Staydium is (business context)

Staydium monetizes in-stadium and broadcast media inventory across college athletics — turning unused music placements (PA drops, timeout beds, walk-up cues) and sponsorship read-throughs into a two-sided marketplace priced per placement. The model reflects an opening footprint of 68 contracted schools with a detailed inventory workbook covering 67 schools, growing through renewals and new-school signings across FY2026–FY2030.

2. What the financial statements tell you (the story)

Revenue ramps from $15.0M in FY2026 to $31.7M in FY2030 (21% CAGR), driven by two mechanics working together: slot capacity growth (45,000 slots Y1, +5,000 slots/yr) and price escalation ($350 music / $800 brand, both escalating 10%/yr). Utilization is the dial: the base case runs at 30% source-plan utilization to tie exactly to the 6.13 proforma.

Gross margin lands at 54% by FY2030 (acquisition cost scales with slot capacity, not slots sold — as utilization rises the acquisition line becomes materially fixed). EBITDA reaches $13.9M (44% margin) at year 5, with the DCF producing an Enterprise Value of $52.6M and equity value of $82.9M.

Below the line, the model carries the $10M Pivot convertible at 10% PIK compounding, with principal + accrued PIK repaid in FY2028. The balance sheet ties (balance check ≈ $0 across all five years) and the cash flow statement rolls CFO → CFI → CFF cleanly.

3. Headcount narrative (staggered hiring, not front-loaded)

We start with 7 FTEs in FY2026 (executive team + revenue/ops leads needed to stand the org up) and grow to 14 FTEs by FY2030, adding roles as revenue scales rather than hiring the full team on day one. This is deliberate — it addresses Rakesh's point that recruiting cost shouldn't be front-loaded on 14 hires in Y1. Loaded cost per FTE (base + bonus + ~7.65% payroll taxes + ~15% benefits + 15% first-year recruiting) grows from $204K in FY2026 to $162K in FY2030.

MetricFY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030
Active FTEs (cumulative)79111314
Schools live6885105122136
Slot capacity45,00050,00055,00060,00065,000
Net revenue$15.0M$18.3M$22.2M$26.6M$31.7M
EBITDA$3.8M$5.5M$7.6M$10.4M$13.9M
4. Pricing & unit economics

Placement pricing is anchored at $350 per music placement and $800 per brand placement, both escalating 10%/yr — the price ceiling implied by the teaser memo and validated against the 6.13 source proformas. Net revenue is grossed down for cancellations (0%), make-goods (0%), discounts (2%), refunds (1%), and bad debt (1%). Acquisition cost is $200/slot escalating 3%/yr — this is a capacity-based line, not a per-slots-sold line.

5. What this model does NOT include yet — data revenue

Important: the base-case data-revenue line is set to $0 across all five years. Staydium's data monetization thesis (event-level attribution, real-time inventory analytics, licensing to sponsors and rights-holders) is real strategic upside, but the model does not yet include a bottoms-up build for it — pricing, addressable buyers, and delivery cost are still being worked through. The model is structured to add it: a live dataRevenueActive toggle, per-school data fee assumption, and a third-party data COR line are already wired in. When we're comfortable with the assumptions, one input turns it on and it flows through Rev → COR → OpEx (Data Ops staff already ramp with it) → EBITDA → FCF → DCF.

6. How this addresses what Jameson & Rakesh asked for
  • Headcount modeling (Rakesh): Full role-by-role waterfall with staggered start years, loaded costs including payroll tax + benefits + bonus + recruiting, and department allocations (COR / S&M / Product / Data Ops / G&A). See /headcount.
  • Working capital drivers (Jameson): DSO / DPO / prepaid / deferred revenue driven bottoms-up, feeding Δ NWC into CFO. See /working-capital.
  • Staged capital deployment (Rakesh): Tranched funding tied to milestone unlocks with a live gate on /execution-plan feeding /funding.
  • Convertible note valuation floors (Jameson): $10M Pivot convert at 10% PIK, principal + accrued paid FY2028, wired across IS/BS/CF and reflected in the DCF equity bridge.
  • Source-file reconciliation: Line-by-line walk from each 6.13 scenario (30/50/75/100) NOI to the app's Net Income — every variance is drillable to the components that drive it. See /income-statement → reconciliation tabs.
  • Unit economics (Jameson): CAC / LTV / payback per school built explicitly, not backed into. See /unit-economics.
  • Risk register & execution accountability (Rakesh): Per-school contract length / renewal probability / revenue-at-risk feeding a risk-adjusted scenario. Milestones with owners, dates, and evidence links. See /risk-register and /execution-plan.
7. What Base / Growth / Conservative / Aggressive actually flex

Scenarios move utilization first (the primary swing factor: Conservative 25% → Base 30% → Growth 35% → Aggressive 40%), then WACC secondarily. Price escalation is normalized across scenarios so utilization drives the value delta — that's why Growth EV now exceeds Base EV (a bug we hit and fixed). Every scenario is fully overrideable at Master Inputs → R. Scenario Overrides.

This overview is the plain-English version of what the numbers on every other tab show. If the narrative here disagrees with a linked tab, the linked tab wins — the source of truth is the calculation, and this section explains it.

Every row below links to the section in the model where it lives (or will live). Items marked Built are already reflected in the underlying calculations and financial statements; items marked Planned are scoped and ready to build. This page is the source of truth — anything captured here is (or will be) replicated exactly in the sections it points to.

Initial build
9 items

Revenue reconciliation to source proforma

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Revenue on the income statement seemed low; reconcile FY26–30 to the 30% utilization Excel proforma.

Delivered

Engine runs in source_proforma mode: 45,000 slots × 30% utilization × $350 / $800 pricing. Year 1 revenue ties exactly to $15,525,000. Bottom-up 35,875-slot number retained as a cross-check on School Inventory.

Editable music/brand utilization (30% source)

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Where can I change the 30% utilization input? Show the source.

Delivered

Master Inputs → B/C. Source-Plan Utilization is a live input. Scenario overrides (Conservative 25% / Growth 35% / Aggressive 40%) exposed in Master Inputs → R. Scenario Overrides.

Scenario ordering (Conservative < Base < Growth < Aggressive)

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Growth EV came in below Base — fix the assumptions so scenarios move monotonically.

Delivered

Removed compounding levers. Scenarios now swing on utilization + WACC + perpetuity growth only; price escalation and slot growth held at base.

Comprehensive DCF summary tab

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Provide a comprehensive summary tab that outlines every element of the DCF.

Delivered

9-section executive walkthrough: EV bridge, WACC build, FCF waterfall, terminal value cross-check, discount periods, sensitivity recap. Every number carries a tooltip and drill-down.

Tooltips + drill-downs on every statement line

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Add tooltips to every element on financial statements. Make numbers clickable to see source/calculation with recursive drill-through.

Delivered

Glossary covers P&L, balance sheet, cash flow, DCF, WACC. Every cell is clickable → KpiDrilldown shows substituted formula (e.g. 13,500 × $350 = $4,725,000), upstream inputs (editable), and recursive Back-navigation stack.

Goal-seek reverse calculation

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Make calculated numbers editable with reverse calculation.

Delivered

Bisection solver on named outputs: EV → implied WACC or perpetuity growth; Y5 EBITDA → implied schools/pricing; Equity value → implied exit multiple; UFCF → implied revenue growth.

Editable per-school sport inventory

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Make placements/game and games/season editable per school with a school dropdown.

Delivered

School dropdown drives dynamic table; placements/game and games/season are live inputs persisted in schoolOverrides and flow into revenue capacity.

$10M Pivot convertible w/ 10% PIK

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Add $10M convertible from Pivot at 10% PIK compounding annually; principal + accrued PIK repaid FY2028.

Delivered

Engine models PIK accrual, interest expense above tax line, add-back to CFO, Y1 inflow / Y3 outflow in CFF. Balance sheet shows debt + accrued interest.

19-member cap table

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Reflect the actual ownership from the teaser memo.

Delivered

Full 19-member cap table replaces placeholder ownership; pre/post-money and dilution tracked.

P1 — Investor critical
3 items

Detailed headcount / hiring plan

Built
Ask (from transcript)

$700K of salaries — I want to see role-by-role by year, tied to scaling milestones.

Delivered

Upgrade /headcount to year-by-year hiring waterfall. Add Start FY/Month, End FY, Ramp %, Replacement flag, and milestone triggers (e.g. hire 2nd Data BD when live schools ≥ 40). New KPIs: FTE by year, loaded cost/FTE, revenue/FTE.

Tranched funding schedule

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Cash comes in tranches gated by milestones — model the timing, not a lump sum.

Delivered

New /funding page. Inputs: tranche name, amount, close date, milestone trigger, instrument (equity/SAFE/convertible), pre-money, discount, cap. Outputs: monthly cash-in, dilution walk, min-cash covenant check, runway between tranches. CFF sources from this schedule.

Convertible term sheet + conversion math

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Show payoff-vs-convert decision, cap/discount mechanics, and post-conversion dilution.

Delivered

Extends Pivot debt on /funding. Per note: principal, cash/PIK coupon, maturity, cap, discount, qualified-financing trigger, MFN. Outputs: conversion price at each future round, shares issued, post-conversion FDS, payoff-vs-convert table. Investor Returns splits debt-holder and equity-holder IRR.

P2 — Operating rigor
3 items

Unit economics dashboard

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Show CAC, LTV, LTV/CAC, payback, contribution margin per school and per slot.

Delivered

New /unit-economics page. CAC = S&M ÷ new schools signed; LTV = avg rev/school × GM × retention; cohort table by signing year with revenue ramp and cumulative contribution. Drill-downs on CAC (S&M breakdown) and LTV (retention curve).

Driver-based working capital

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Real WC mechanics — DSO/DPO, deferred revenue for upfront brand deals, prepaid opex.

Delivered

Upgrade /working-capital. Master Inputs → N. Working Capital Timing: DSO by revenue line, DPO, deferred rev % of brand, prepaid % of opex. Monthly AR/AP/deferred schedule; real ΔNWC into cash flow.

Monthly cash flow + covenant dashboard

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Monthly burn view with min-cash covenant test and plan-vs-actual flags.

Delivered

New /monthly-cash: 60-month grid (Y1–Y5) with opening cash, receipts, disbursements, closing cash, min-cash flag. Covenant panel on /model-checks: revenue/EBITDA/schools-live/headcount vs plan with pass/fail badges per quarter.

P3 — Risk & accountability
2 items

Contract / school risk register

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Track contract length, exclusivity, renewal probability, revenue-at-risk per school.

Delivered

New /risk-register. Per school: contract length, exclusivity, key contact, renewal prob, revenue-at-risk, replacement lead time. Aggregates: total revenue-at-risk by year, top-5 concentration. Feeds a risk-adjusted scenario.

Execution plan tracker

Built
Ask (from transcript)

Milestones with target dates, owners, and status — feeding tranche unlocks.

Delivered

New /execution-plan. Milestones (first 10 schools live, first data license, Series A close, etc.) with target date, owner, status, evidence link. Single source of truth referenced by hiring triggers (P1) and tranche gates (P1).

How to read this page
  • Every ask from the Jameson/Rakesh transcript is captured here — nothing lives only in chat history.
  • Each row links to the exact tab where the mechanic is (or will be) implemented.
  • If a number on a linked tab disagrees with the description here, the linked tab is wrong — flag it.
  • Planned items are scoped to the same tooltip/drill-down/edit-inline conventions as built items.