Staydium Financial Model — DCF · Scenarios · Investor Returns

Risk Register

Contract-level risk per school — renewal probability, revenue-at-risk, concentration

Scenario
Tracked Revenue
1,750,000
5 school contracts
Revenue at Risk
443,750
Σ(rev × (1 − renewal prob))
Top-5 Concentration
100.0%
1,750,000 of tracked
Non-Exclusive
1
Schools with competing rights
School Contract Register
SchoolContract (yrs)ExclusiveKey ContactRenewal ProbAnnual RevRev at RiskReplace (mo)Notes
63,750
95,000
124,000
102,000
59,000
Total (5)1,750,000443,750
Feeds risk-adjusted scenario

Revenue at risk = Σ (annual revenue × (1 − renewal probability)). The risk-adjusted scenario on Scenarios reduces Year N+1 revenue by this amount to stress-test EV against churn concentration. Non-exclusive contracts should carry lower renewal probabilities to reflect competing MMR relationships.